NRF Says Expect the Expected this Holiday

Retailers holding out for robust holiday sales to save their lackluster year have next year to hope for. The National Retail Federation released its 2009 holiday forecast last week, projecting holiday retail industry sales to ring in $437.6 billion—a 1-percent decline from 2008. The number is not as severe as last holiday season’s 3.4-percent year-over-year drop, but it does fall significantly below the 10-year average of 3.39-percent growth.

Another flat holiday should not be a surprise to retailers who experienced cutbacks in consumer spending throughout the year. Although signs of recovery—like steady August sales and a recuperating stock market—have hinted to a better holiday season, consumer uncertainty over job security and housing values is dampening holiday spirit. Instead of splurges, NRF anticipates consumers will designate their dollars for practical and budget-friendly gifts.

Aggressive sales will likely result in deflation for some popular holiday categories, including apparel. According to NRF president and CEO Tracy Mullin, retailers are compensating by reducing operating costs in order to pass along attractive savings and promotions to shoppers. Visit www.nrf.com.

In the October issue: How to capitalize on the babywearing boon Steps that make CPSIA compliance easier Catering retail to the Canadian consumer Plus: Tween fashion takes a rock ‘n’ roll spin Coming In November/December: Tips for boosting bedding sales The 2010 trade show preview Profiles of the 2009 Earnie winners Plus: Color makes a splash in the specialty sportswear category